🧪 Sugar Hit vs Compounding Growth

Plus: 3 principles successful brands use to win with both.

Read time: 5 mins 16 secs | Read online

I was in Queenstown, New Zealand last week taking a bit of a break, but I wouldn’t exactly have called it a holiday. We were skiiing/snowboarding, skydiving (enjoy the photo!), jet boating, go-kart racing and eating the most incredible meals. Non-stop action! I slept very well when we got home on Friday…

This week I thought I’d write about a concept I find myself coming back to again and again in conversations with clients. Understanding these two different types of growth strategy is the first step in building a sustainable growth engine.

Hope you find this one useful!

— Isaac

Quick Hits

  • Instagram Outlines Updated Performance Metrics, Including Audience Growth Indicators [SocialMediaToday]

  • How advertisers are approaching ads on WhatsApp [Marketing Brew]

  • Social media creators will overtake traditional media in ad revenue this year [LinkedIn]

  • Spotify created its first audio gaming ad for Netflix’s ‘Happy Gilmore 2’ [Marketing Brew]

  • How big brands respond to negative sentiment on Reddit [Foundation Marketing]

Sugar Hit vs Compounding Growth

94% of consumers have taken some kind of action against unwanted marketing. In Australia, 40% unsubscribe from at least one brand's communications every single week.

We're not just annoying people anymore. We're training them to actively fight back.

This resistance comes from a fundamental misunderstanding of how growth actually works. Most marketers get trapped in a false choice between instant gratification tactics that deliver immediate spikes and patient accumulation strategies that build over time.

The most successful brands don't choose between sugar hits and compounding growth. They strategically blend both approaches, using each for what it does best while avoiding the pitfalls that come from over-relying on either one.

Why Your Quick Wins Keep Getting More Expensive

Sugar hits are short-term marketing tactics that deliver immediate metric spikes. Flash sales, viral contests, influencer collaborations, limited-time promotions. When done strategically, they break through competitive noise, capitalise on cultural moments and create momentum when you need it most.

Instagram giveaways can increase follower growth by 70% and drive 3.5 times more engagement than typical posts. That's not just vanity metrics, it's rapid audience acquisition when you need to build awareness and scale quickly.

Black Friday demonstrates sugar hits at massive scale. In 2023, U.S. online sales hit $9.8 billion in a single day. For many retailers, that single day accounts for a significant portion of their annual revenue, providing cash flow that funds the rest of their operations.

Spotify's annual "Wrapped" campaign shows how sugar hits can be done cleverly. In 2022, over 156 million users engaged with their personalised year-end summaries, creating massive organic reach and cultural relevance that no amount of advertising could replicate.

These tactics work because they tap into powerful psychological triggers like urgency, FOMO and social proof. They're particularly valuable for breakthrough moments, launching new products, entering new markets, or competing against established players who dominate through compounding advantages.

The challenge comes when sugar hits become your primary growth engine rather than strategic accelerators. Sales that only surge during promotions signal you've trained customers that regular prices aren't worth paying. High churn rates after campaigns suggest you're attracting people who want your promotion, not your product. Team burnout from constantly chasing viral moments creates an unsustainable hamster wheel where each campaign needs to be bigger than the last.

Sugar hits are powerful tools when used strategically, but they can't be your foundation.

How to Build Growth That Doesn't Depend on You Being Brilliant Every Day

Compounding growth strategies work differently. They build sustainable, exponential growth over time through retention, network effects and continuous improvement. The gains accumulate like interest, creating momentum that becomes increasingly difficult for competitors to replicate.

Research shows that increasing customer retention by just 5% can boost profits by 25-95%. Companies with high loyalty grow 2.5x faster than competitors. But the real power lies in how these effects compound over years, not quarters.

Morning Brew scaled largely through a referral program that gamified sharing with rewards like merch. About 30-35% of new subscribers came from referrals on average, and during peak periods up to 75% of signups were referral-driven. This created a self-reinforcing growth engine that helped them grow from a scrappy college project to 4+ million subscribers and a $75 million acquisition.

Welcome email sequences demonstrate how systematic nurturing creates compounding returns. Industry data shows welcome emails average 4x higher open rates and 5x higher click-through rates than standard marketing emails. They also drive more revenue, generating 3x more transactions per email compared to regular promotional emails. By nurturing users immediately when interest is highest, you get higher activation and long-term retention, which compounds into greater customer lifetime value over years.

Dropbox's referral program led to explosive compounded growth. In just 15 months, they went from 100,000 to 4 million users, a 3,900% increase. According to CEO Drew Houston, the referral feature permanently boosted signup rates by around 60%. This allowed them to avoid expensive advertising and instead grow largely through word-of-mouth.

But compounding strategies have real limitations. They're slow to start, which can be problematic when you need immediate traction or are facing competitive pressure. It can typically take 3-6 months just to start seeing results, and for brand-new businesses it can take 12+ months to gain significant traction. In fast-moving markets, that timeline can mean missing critical opportunities.

They also struggle with breakthrough moments. While compounding tactics excel at steady growth, they rarely create the cultural impact needed to disrupt established markets or capture attention during key moments. Sometimes you need a bigger push to kickstart momentum or capitalise on trending topics.

Perhaps most importantly, compounding tactics get systematically undervalued because they're less glamorous than viral moments. There's no exciting campaign launch, no immediate dashboard spike, no bragging rights at industry events. They're harder to attribute to specific campaigns and their success builds slowly, then suddenly. This makes it easy to abandon compounding strategies just before they start delivering significant returns, or to under-invest in them relative to their long-term impact.

I love this graphic from Visualize Value, you have to give compounding strategies enough time to kick in.

Brands That Master Both Approaches

The most successful brands don't just use both sugar hits and compounding growth, they strategically integrate them through three key principles.

1. Strong Foundations Enable Bigger Risks

When you have reliable compounding growth engines, you can afford to experiment with bolder sugar hit campaigns. The steady baseline gives you permission to take creative risks that might fail, because your core growth isn't dependent on any single campaign.

Airbnb exemplifies this principle. Their referral program drove hundreds of thousands of extra bookings and boosted bookings by up to 25% in some markets, creating a reliable foundation of viral growth.

This compounding engine gave them the stability to launch bold campaigns like "Go Near" during COVID – a complete pivot that promoted local travel when their core international business collapsed. Without their referral foundation, such a dramatic shift would have been much riskier.

Build your compounding base first, then use that stability to fund bigger creative swings.

2. Sugar Hits Must Feed Compounding Systems

The best sugar hit campaigns don't just drive immediate results – they capture audiences and feed them into long-term growth engines. Every viral moment becomes a pipeline for sustainable growth.

HubSpot masters this integration. Their evergreen blog content generates 67% more leads monthly than companies that don't blog, with posts continuing to drive traffic years after publication. But they don't just wait for organic discovery. They create strategic "sugar hits" through data-driven reports like their annual State of Marketing study and quick responses to trending topics like AI in marketing. These timely pieces capture immediate attention and social shares, but more importantly, they drive people to subscribe to their email list and discover their library of evergreen content.

Every campaign should have a compounding component that continues working after the initial spike fades.

3. Consistent Growth With Strategic Acceleration

Rather than choosing between steady compound growth or dramatic campaign spikes, the best brands achieve both simultaneously. They maintain reliable momentum while strategically timing bigger pushes around key moments.

Canva’s product is inherently viral. Users create and share designs, invite team members, spreading the platform organically to over 220 million monthly active users. This viral product design creates steady, compound growth month after month. But they don't rely solely on organic growth. They periodically roll out major feature launches like their 2022 "Visual Worksuite" announcement, creating massive press coverage and social media buzz that introduces new waves of users to their viral product features.

They avoid both the rollercoaster of campaign-dependent growth and the missed opportunities of purely organic strategies.

The Sustainable Growth Formula

The most successful brands don't choose between sugar hits and compounding growth. They use strategic sugar hits to accelerate momentum built on compounding foundations.

This approach creates what researchers call "preference intensity" where customers don't just prefer your brand, they're willing to pay significantly more for it and defend it against competitors. Sugar hits might drive free trials and create breakthrough moments, but compounding strategies build the relationships that create long-term value.

Think like an investor building a portfolio, not a gambler chasing the next big win. Diversify across time horizons. Maintain consistent investment in proven strategies while allocating smaller portions to higher-risk, higher-reward experiments.

The future belongs to brands that master both immediate impact and patient accumulation. In an attention economy where every interaction is a transaction, you need tactics that both earn attention through sustained value and capitalise on moments when that attention peaks.

If you're a sugar hit addict: Pick one piece of content from your last successful campaign. How can you turn it into an evergreen asset? That viral LinkedIn post could become the foundation of an email sequence. That successful webinar could be broken into a content series that works for months.

If you're stuck in compounding paralysis: Schedule one strategic sugar hit for the next 30 days. Partner with a podcast, run a week-long social media challenge, or create a timely response to industry news. But make sure it feeds people into your email list or wider ecosystem.

If you're doing neither well: Start with compounding. Build the foundation first, then add the fireworks later.

Because sustainable growth isn't about choosing between immediate results and future success. It's about building systems that deliver both.

If you enjoyed this post or know someone who may find it useful, please share it with them and encourage them to subscribe: brandchemistry.co/p/sugar-hit-compounding

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That’s it from me!

Until next week,
Isaac Peiris

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